Expert Meteorologist vs Farmer’s Almanac Winter Prediction in New York
The Farmer’s Almanac has released its annual winter forecast, predicting a season filled with snow in the Northeast — including New York — and colder-than-normal temperatures.
The almanac points to frigid weather in January and again in mid-February, with plenty of shoveling in between.
But before you stock up on extra firewood and salt, meteorologist Ray Stagich with The Weather Channel says long-range forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt.
READ MORE: Farmers’ Almanac Warns Of Brutal Winter In New York
“Seasonal forecasting is just a best guess based on what’s happened in the past,” Stagich explained. “A lot can change between now and the heart of winter.”
La Nina Winter
This year, the U.S. is heading into a La Niña winter — a climate pattern associated with cooling waters in the Pacific Ocean, which in turn affects weather worldwide. Historically, La Niña winters in the Northeast can swing either way, sometimes bringing above-average temperatures, unleashing major snowstorms.
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“The Farmer’s Almanac is hedging toward a colder, snowier season for our region,” Stagich said. “But the reality is, there’s an equal chance we could repeat last winter. Much of the snow we saw then was lake effect, confined to the snow belt. A La Niña winter could deliver a bigger storm or two, but we’ll have to wait and see what Mother Nature decides.”
For now, Stagich says even a 7-day forecast is “more of a guess than a guarantee.”
Short Fall Foliage Season
As for the immediate future, the transition into fall could be a colorful — but short-lived — show. “Because of the heat and lack of rain, leaves may turn quicker and be less vibrant,” he said. “A wetter pattern in the coming weeks might help brighten things up.”
READ MORE: First Signs of Fall Already in New York
Whatever Mother Nature dishes out this winter, let's hope it's not as bad as last year when hundreds of homes and business roofs collapsed under the weight of all the snow we had.
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